Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 19.296039 21.992076 24.897799 28.258478 32.034343 36.141667 40.943956
2024-12-29 15.378470 19.047372 23.306296 28.599904 34.986691 42.426440 51.731473
2025-01-05 13.642099 17.813014 22.886917 29.484118 37.802844 47.908803 61.077684
2025-01-12 11.808883 16.173692 21.712287 29.209865 39.041908 51.437343 68.181192
2025-01-19 9.934547 14.204881 19.832683 27.729898 38.452224 52.418828 71.889365
2025-01-26 9.172208 13.615803 19.667580 28.427494 40.681398 57.094565 80.597611
2025-02-02 8.550738 13.138783 19.578510 29.167966 42.950976 61.884028 89.658317
2025-02-09 7.751220 12.315073 18.910088 29.002155 43.889008 64.836186 96.278269
2025-02-16 6.996515 11.478202 18.137363 28.595616 44.407092 67.166534 102.074579
2025-02-23 6.476364 10.947212 17.764450 28.731432 45.692681 70.621995 109.621691
2025-03-02 6.061922 10.541225 17.540597 29.058506 47.255395 74.528039 117.987695
2025-03-09 5.634294 10.072642 17.175389 29.123245 48.392463 77.820927 125.554691
2025-03-16 5.167774 9.508242 16.628139 28.879894 49.062720 80.487163 132.390969
2025-03-23 4.843264 9.157836 16.402771 29.139609 50.543986 84.478523 141.485840
2025-03-30 4.671378 9.057085 16.580971 30.069440 53.151882 90.352195 153.811209
2025-04-06 4.306866 8.575940 16.068075 29.780212 53.698285 92.915596 160.899011
2025-04-13 3.787783 7.761427 14.906955 28.276641 52.076601 91.820438 161.897920
2025-04-20 3.647512 7.651244 14.995410 28.985864 54.305255 97.216486 173.923975
2025-04-27 3.522850 7.559690 15.108426 29.740121 56.643935 102.892601 186.659835
2025-05-04 3.284443 7.221312 14.735551 29.571185 57.312846 105.722818 194.628296
2025-05-11 3.035715 6.839711 14.251438 29.157312 57.502822 107.711722 201.200374
2025-05-18 2.872610 6.621137 14.065717 29.295579 58.709889 111.533955 211.144747
2025-05-25 2.743061 6.462247 13.985133 29.628588 60.291883 116.084680 222.565573